Keynote Address for the Berkeley Integrative Biology & Human
Biodynamics Commencement, May 16, 1999.
Published in Skeptical Briefs, 1999, 9(3): 5-7.
SCIENCE, A CANDLE IN THE DARK
JERE H. LIPPS
Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720
My fellow faculty, graduating PhDs, graduating Masters, and graduating seniors in Integrative Biology and Human Biodynamics, and your parents, sisters and brothers, sons and daughters, grandmas and grandpas, and other relatives and friends. Welcome!
The graduating students you see before you are very special and very unique people. You know that they have worked hard, that they are graduating from the premier university in the nation and from a campus with 36 top-ranked departments, including our own as No. 1 in biology. You know all those things. And you should be proud of your graduate. People just like them, who graduated from Berkeley in years past, have significantly changed the world. Some of your graduates will too.
But I want to focus on another reason why they are unique and special, and suggest a way that they might change the world too. Your graduate has joined a tiny percentage of Americans who are scientifically literate. He or she has become part of that fewer than 5% of Americans who understand the process of science--how it works. Maybe not all the facts, but how science is done and applied. Fewer than 10 million other adults in the US know that. In fact, more than 197 million adults have little idea how science works at all. In just 20 years, those numbers will rise to 240 million illiterate and only 12.6 million literate in science. Worldwide, that will be over 5 billion, 400 million scientifically illiterate and a mere 285 million scientifically literate people, more or less, in the year 2020.
So what? Is it important that people be scientifically literate? You bet! For many reasons. The late Carl Sagan said it well in his 1996 book “The Demon-Haunted World--Science as a candle in the Dark”, the subtitle of which I borrowed for my own talk today. In that book, Carl said:
“We’ve arranged a global civilization in which most critical elements profoundly depend on science and technology. We have also arranged things so that almost no one understands science and technology. THIS IS A PRESCRIPTION FOR DISASTER.”
Let me show you why. Americans are woefully inadequate both in their understanding of how science works and in their knowledge of basic scientific facts. The National Research Council questioned a random sample of Americans with 10 science questions. Let’s see how you do on that same quiz. This will be your last quiz graduates. I’ll let you keep your own score, and I’ll give you only 8 of the questions.
1. How long does it take the earth to go around the Sun? One day, one month or one year? 47% knew it took a year. However, more than 1/4 (27%) of people thought that the Sun goes around the Earth!
2. The oxygen we breath comes from plants. 85% agreed, and it’s right, and I have no idea how they knew that one.
3. All radioactivity is man-made. 72% agreed but you know that’s wrong.
4. Humans lived with dinosaurs, and I don’t mean birds, I mean T. rex. 48% of Americans agreed, and every single one of you graduates know it is wrong. Interestingly, that percentage is identical to what newspaper editors believe! And they control our news.
5. Cigarette smoking causes cancer. 91% agreed, and it is true, yet 30% still smoke! Why is this question answered so positively? Because it is an issue that has been in the press and on TV for years. Advertising works!
6. The center of the earth is very hot. 78% agreed. As a geologist, I was especially happy about this, because I thought we must be doing a good job teaching about plate tectonics, convection, and earth structure. I said so at a talk on this same literacy topic at UCLA to over 1000 people. At the end, someone stood up and said, “Jere, you are so naive--the reason that so many people agree with that is because that is where they think hell is!”
There were two short answer questions:
1. What is DNA? Almost anything was acceptable, unlike in Biology 1. The NRC would accept answers like “the blueprint for life”, but only 1 out of 5 Americans were even that close. Everyone of our graduates knows a much better answer for that question.
2. What is a molecule? Only 9% could come even close to the right answer. I thought we learned that kind of stuff in grammar or high school! What is going on?
So, the scientific knowledge of our population is pathetic. Here we are, critically dependent in our nation, yes, even in the world, in our states, counties and cities, and especially in our daily lives on science, yet hardly anyone knows how it works. I’d point out that in the US Congress, the rate is probably even lower. After all, most of them are lawyers. This general condition may well be at the root of numerous problems in the world.
Perhaps this illiteracy is the reason that so many people believe in the paranormal and pseudoscientific at their own peril. For example, 60% of Americans believe that alien space craft visit the Earth, and a large subset of those people believe the aliens are conducting sexual experiments on people or abducting them. While that is silly, why do we spend $29 billion/year on standard medicine and another almost equal amount ($27 billion) on alternative medicines that cannot be demonstrated scientifically to be effective? Why do people pay outrageous sums of money for weird solutions to their problems? Problems of all sorts. Because they do not understand some very basic ways of dealing with the real world. I’ll get to those later.
Let me give you an example of how it can work. Stephen Jay Gould, who all you graduating students know is a famous paleontologist and evolutionary biologist, was diagnosed with a severe kind of stomach cancer. He wrote about his experience, and I’d like to share just a little of that. He was shocked to learn that he had only eight months to live, or so it seemed initially. But he did not rush off for strange treatments across the border, rely solely on “positive thinking”, nor did he eat raw herbs from the forest. Instead, he realized that 8 months a median, and that he would die at some time down the line other than eight months. He went to the Harvard Med School Library and discovered that some people died in a matter of days, but that others lived for decades after diagnosis, for a median meant that half the people with the disease lived between 0 and 8 months and the other half lived longer than that. A few, he realized, must have lived quite long lives. He was determined to move himself into that group. He found out what those people did to live long--what therapies they took, what kinds of doctors they saw, what operations they had, and what kind of lives they led. He did all those things himself and entered into an experimental therapy that might increase the lifespan of victims. He is still alive almost two decades after his diagnosis, and fully expects to live to a ripe old age.
Let’s look at some of the issues in today’s newspapers: Violence in the media--we actually have scientific studies that show people are excited by such programs, but that only much less than 1% of the viewers might act violently as a result. But if that number is only 1 out of 100,000, that still means that we could have some 2000 acts of violence as a result of a media event. Society needs to decide what level of violence it can tolerate, after it understands scientifically how and why fantasy violence in the media may promote actual violence.
What about global warming? The scientific consensus is that it is occurring, yet our country often impedes implementation of counter measures for fear of economic impact. But what if the increasing number of hurricanes that strike the US, tornadoes in Oklahoma or heat waves in Chicago are related to this warming, as some scientists have suggested? These do hundreds of millions to tens of billions of dollars worth of damage and kill hundreds of people when they occur. That is economic impact, and most scientists suggest that it will get worse.
And what about this or what about that scientific issue? There are many--deforestation, overfishing, gun distribution, pesticides, earthquake prediction, drug addiction, and many, many more facing us. Who can understand this stuff? Your graduates can, for the most part, because they belong to that very elite group of scientifically literate people.
Why aren’t more people literate and interested in science? After all, we spend somewhere near $3 billion/year in K-12 science education across this nation alone. To produce what? A population that is 98% scientifically illiterate. As Carl Sagan, Paul Ehrlich, and some of us up here have said, that is simply not good enough.
Someplace in their teens, probably, people lose interest in scientific things, and all of that money goes down the drain. While there are many reasons, the media is an obvious culprit on this one too. Look at the huge number of pseudoscientific programs on television, presented as documentaries, news, dramas, and sitcoms. One network recently showed the particularly antiscientific programs “Mysterious Origins of Man” and “Aliens among us”, as well as a number of other such programs. Their alien program was presented as if it were a true scientific investigation, but it was not the news division that produced it, it was the entertainment division! Thus, truth is confused with fiction, reality with fantasy, and authorities with charlatans. And few people can tell the difference because they simply do not have the tools to do it.
Even the newspapers don’t get it right. Let me give you example from my own experience. Some time ago, the National Science Foundation decided to drill a hole through the Ross Ice Shelf in Antarctica to see what was under it. The Shelf is as big as Texas and may well be an important source of deep ocean water that could affect our climates, etc. Half a dozen engineers and 12 scientists went to the drill site. But the engineers got the drill frozen 3/4 of the way through the ice and no one was able to sample at all. Well, in spite of that, I was able to get some wet suits down there in time to divert my team to do some exploration diving in McMurdo Sound. There we found a new kind of single-celled organism. NSF, in its wisdom, decided to have a symposium about the results of the Ross Ice Shelf Project. Investigator after investigator stood up and said they had no results because the engineers got the drill stuck. But I stood up and told them about how we diverted and found a new species of protozoan. Big deal! Two weeks later, the NSF Public Relations guy called me up and said “I hear you discovered a new species of animal in Antarctica”. I said: “Well, it wasn’t an animal, it was a single-celled protozoan, and besides scientists find new species every day. It is not newsworthy.” He asked: “Is it good to eat?” I said “It’s a single cell--no one in their right mind would even think of eating one!”. He continued: “Well, if you did eat it , what would it taste like?” Wearily, I said it had a shell made of sand, and so I suppose it would taste like sand. But I warned, no one would ever want to eat one. His report went out over Reuters International, and a friend in Rhode Island sent me the clip from his local newspaper with his comment “Did you really say this, Jere?”. It said: “Professor Jere Lipps of the University of California found a new species of animal in Antarctica that is not good to eat because it tastes like sand!”
Be real careful with the media, graduates! It’s usually a far cry from the way things really are, especially on TV. Be a skeptical reader and be a skeptical viewer!!
The general public sees science as difficult, boring, and often useless. But let me show you guests of our graduates a different view. Our graduates know this already.
Look at some of the people up here. All of you graduating students probably had Professor David Wake in class. What an enthusiast! I remember when I went in the field with him years ago on the north coast, and he yelled “Stop the van and follow me!” We ran fast to keep up, and I saw him fling himself down next to a rotten log, stick his arm under it, and pull out a yellow and black salamander. Boy was he excited! He told us all about it--where it lived, what it ate, how it reproduced and why it was important. I gotta say, I didn’t quite get it, Dave, but I sure was impressed with your enthusiasm and love for that little salamander. And our Chairman, Roy Caldwell--I’ve seen him standing in water up to his rear end down at Berkeley’s lab in Tahiti, smashing rocks all day long to find stomatopods. Those are a kind of snapping shrimp. After a week, he had 10 or 12 that he watched for hours in the aquaria. Again, I didn’t exactly get it, but he sure was having fun! And Professor Marian Diamond rushed into my office once and proclaimed “You are so right-brained, Jere!!” I really didn’t get that one (and I hope it’s a good thing), but I had seen her explaining her brain research with such enthusiasm and excitement so many times, that I just knew she had just had some wonderful insight while on her way downstairs, and she had to apply it right away to my very own brain. Professor Tyrone Hayes, together with undergraduates and graduates, gets so excited about frog physiology and endocrinology, I’ve seen him barely able to talk. And he has so much fun with all of it. I could go on with all of them up here. And I know that while my colleagues may not exactly get why I go wandering off in the desert surrounded by cholla cactus to search in total happiness for fossilized microbes a billion years old that I can’t even see, they do indeed understand the excitement and contentment that I feel. Especially when I think I got it right!
These graduating students feel that too, or will when they find their niche. I’ve already seen it happen with those undergrads who’ve taken the IB 158 Moorea class. Those students walk differently when they come back from 9 weeks in Tahiti. They started like puppy dogs, but ended up as apprentice scientists that had accomplished something. They thought they were going to Paradise, but they ended up in a taro patch, under a bungalow, chasing down geckos through the coconut palms, or dissecting big, ugly parasites from fish caught far at sea. They discovered hard work, no sleep, mosquitoes galore, rats, getting up at 4 am to catch the tide or the ferry to the next island so they could spend the day wading through stinking mangrove swamps, and then staying up until 2 am to do a plankton tow in the rain. And helping each other do those things too. And they loved it! They come away from their science, not with fading memories of a good time, but with a new life! They know the joy of discovery, the excitement of swimming with whales to observe their behavior, the thrill of solving a difficult problem, and the contentment of knowing they did it right and, especially, that they did it themselves.
You all know that scientists are really no different from other people--they have the full range of emotions: love, hate, envy, and some are the most honest people while others are deceitful. They are normal. But in one respect, scientists are different. Almost all of them really love their work. Contrast that with the 80% of Americans who hate their jobs!
Science is fun; science is creative; science is so satisfying. It’s a good life.
Scientific literacy provides far more than knowledge and a way to view the world. It provides enjoyment of life as well. So what is scientific literacy then? It is basically three things with an assortment of facts: It is CRITICAL THINKING, EVIDENTIAL REASONING AND EVALUATION OF AUTHORITY plus whatever scientific facts you think are particularly important. Our graduating students have learned about these things.
Critical thinking involves 8 skills, the most important of which are to avoid emotional thinking, determine biases and assumptions, consider other interpretations, and, perhaps, the most important, tolerate uncertainty.
Evidential reasoning includes 6 rules. Any claim must be falsifiable in theory, the argument must be logical, it must be comprehensive, honest, and the evidence must be replicable. Most importantly here, it must be sufficient. In other words, extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence. Don’t be fooled by the person who claims to have an alien in his garage when he shows you a blurry picture. Demand that he show you an arm, leg, head, or DNA, from his alien, if it has any. Similarly, demand evidence from your doctor, auto repairman, insurance man, Realtor, teacher or whoever, that their claims are underpinned by sufficient evidence to support their claims.
Lastly, do not believe false authorities. Do the authorities practice critical thinking and evidential reasoning? If not, don’t believe them. Do they have the proper credentials. If not, don’t believe them. Do they have appropriate employment? If not, question them.
If you do these things, your lives will be happier, just like the people up here and the students down there, and your checkbook will be fuller. You will vote more wisely, you will decide more sensibly about your own lives, and you will live more comfortably with your surroundings. And especially, you will likely get and keep excellent jobs that you actually enjoy. Our graduates have a significant advantage over most other Americans because they are scientifically literate.
And I hope that at least a few of you graduates will take my words here to heart and think hard about how to improve scientific literacy in America. You have the tools to change our world, just like other past Berkeley graduates. Our nation deserves it, and you deserve it. Do not let Carl Sagan’s “Prescription for Disaster” come true! Change the world. You can do it.
So, thanks to all the graduating students. It’s been fun and stimulating having you as students, and we all wish you the very best in your scientifically full future.
SOME USEFUL REFERENCES ON SCIENTIFIC LITERACY* AND OTHERS ON SCIENTIFIC ILLITERACY? IN AMERICA:
*Ehrlich, P. R., and Ehrlich, A. H. 1996. Betrayal of Science and Reason: How Anti-Environmental Rhetoric Threatens Our Future. (Washington, D. C., Island Press).
*Eve, R. A., and Harrold, F. B. 1991. The Creationist Movement in Modern America. (Boston, Twayne Publishers).
*Gould, Stephen Jay. 1996. Full House. (New York, Harmony Books).
*Lederman, L. M. 1996. A strategy for saving science. Skeptical Inquirer 20: 23-28.
*Lett, J. 1990. A field guide to critical thinking. Skeptical Inquirer 14: 153-160.
*Lipps, J. H. 1999. Beyond Reason: Science in the Mass Media, p. 71-90, in J. W. Schopf (Ed.), Evolution! Facts and Fallacies. Academic Press, San Diego.
*Lipps, J. H. This is science! P. 3-16 in Scotchmoor, J., and Springer, D. A. (Eds.), Evolution: Investigating the Evidence. Paleontological Society Special Publication 9: 3-16.
?Limbaugh, R. 1992. The Way Things Ought to Be. (New York, Pocket Books).
?Limbaugh, R. 1992. See I Told You So. (New York, Pocket Books).
?Marrs, J. 1997. Alien Agenda. (New York, HarperCollins Publishers).
*Miller, J. D. 1987. The scientifically illiterate. American Demographics 9:26-31.
*National Science Board. 1996a. Science and Engineering Indicators--1996. NSB 96-21. (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office. http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind96/start.htm).
*National Science Board. 1996b. US Science and Engineering in a Changing World. NSB 96. (Washington, D. C.: U. S. Government Printing Office. http://www.nsf.gov/sbe/srs/seind96/start.htm).
*Perkins, R., Jr. 1995. Logic and Mr. Limbaugh. (Chicago, Open Court).
*Sagan, C. 1996. The Demon-Haunted World. Science as a Candle in the Dark. (New York, NY: Random House).
*Shermer, M.. 1997. Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition, and Other Confusions. (New York, NY: W. H. Freeman and Co.).
*Wade, C., and Tavris, C. 1990. Thinking critically
and creatively. Skeptical Inquirer 14: 372-377.